CRAPS STRATEGY GUIDE

The mathematically best strategy: pass line + maximum odds

If you only care about one thing - minimizing expected loss - the correct strategy is a single, simple routine:

1. Place a pass line bet before every come-out roll.
2. If a point is set, immediately place the maximum odds behind your pass line bet.
3. Wait for the round to resolve. Collect or lose.
4. Repeat.

That is it. No place bets, no field, no proposition bets. Just pass line and odds, forever.

Why this works: the pass line itself has a 1.41% house edge. The odds bet has 0% house edge. When you combine them, the weighted average edge drops because the zero-edge odds bet is larger than the underlying pass line bet. The more odds you take, the closer your combined edge gets to zero.

Exact effective house edge by odds multiplier:

• 1x odds: 0.85%
• 2x odds: 0.61%
• 3-4-5x odds: 0.37%
• 5x odds: 0.33%
• 10x odds: 0.18%
• 20x odds: 0.10%
• 100x odds: 0.02%

At 100x odds (rare, typically only found at Las Vegas casinos catering to craps devotees), your effective house edge is 0.02%. That is basically a coin flip - $0.02 lost per $100 wagered. No other craps strategy comes close to this number.

The trade-off: the odds bet requires bankroll. At 3-4-5x odds on a $10 pass line, you are betting up to $50 on odds in addition to the $10 pass line - a $60 total exposure per round. Make sure your bankroll can absorb the variance.

The 3 Point Molly

The 3 Point Molly is the classic "right way" craps strategy. It is conservative, balanced, and built on the lowest-house-edge bets in the game. Many craps coaches and authors recommend it as the default strategy for a recreational player.

The procedure:

1. Place a pass line bet before every come-out roll.
2. Once a point is set, place maximum odds behind the pass line.
3. On the next roll, place a come bet.
4. Whatever number the come bet "travels to" becomes your first come point. Add maximum odds to it.
5. Place another come bet.
6. Whatever number that one travels to becomes your second come point. Add maximum odds.
7. Now you have three working bets on three different numbers - pass line point, first come point, second come point - all with odds.
8. Keep rolling. When one of them wins (either the pass line point or a come point), replace it with a new come bet to maintain three working bets.
9. When a 7 hits, you lose all three. Start over.

Result: three bets working on three different numbers, all at near-zero effective house edge. Combined edge is still about 0.37% at 3-4-5x odds, since all three bets are line bets with odds.

Why it is popular: more action than pass line alone, so the game feels livelier, without sacrificing the edge. If the shooter is hot, you win on multiple numbers and your profit adds up fast. If the shooter sevens out, you lose three bets at once - but at the lowest possible edge.

The right-way strategy

"Right way" means you are betting WITH the shooter - you want them to make points and avoid sevens. Pass line and come bets are right-way bets. Most craps players are right-way bettors because it feels natural to root for the shooter.

A basic right-way strategy beyond pass line:

• Pass line with max odds on every come-out.
• After the point is set, add a Place 6 and Place 8 (if those are not the point).
• Leave the place bets working until they win twice (then take them down), OR until a 7 hits (they lose).

This gives you action on three to four numbers at once: the pass line point, the 6, the 8, and sometimes odds on a come bet if you add one. The pass line and odds are at 0.37% edge; the place 6 and 8 are at 1.52%. Weighted average: roughly 1.0% effective edge across the whole strategy - good, not great, but higher action than pass line alone.

The wrong-way strategy (don't pass)

"Wrong way" means you are betting AGAINST the shooter. Don't pass and don't come are wrong-way bets. The don't pass has a slightly better house edge than pass line (1.36% vs 1.41%), but wrong-way betting is socially frowned upon at live casino tables because you are rooting for the table to lose.

The basic wrong-way strategy mirrors the right-way strategy:

1. Place a don't pass bet before every come-out roll.
2. If a point is set, lay odds behind it. Laying odds means you put up more than you win - reflecting that the don't pass is now favored.
3. Wait for the round to resolve.

Laying odds is counter-intuitive: for example, on a point of 4 or 10, you lay $40 to win $20 at 2 to 1. That feels backwards ("I am risking more than I can win?") but it is mathematically fair because the don't pass bet is now favored to win. The house edge on the combined don't pass + laid odds is even lower than the pass line + odds equivalent.

Downside: wrong-way betting requires more capital because the lay amounts can be large. A $10 don't pass with $50 laid odds on a point of 6 requires $60 total exposure per round.

At Crapsee there is no social stigma. Try wrong-way betting for a session - some players prefer the mathematical feel of it.

Place 6 and 8 regression

A regression strategy is one where you reduce (regress) your bet size after an initial win to lock in profit while keeping some action on the table. The place 6 and 8 regression is the simplest and most popular regression system in craps.

The setup:

1. Wait for a point to be set.
2. Place $18 on Place 6 and $18 on Place 8 - the maximum "clean" multiple of 6 that most tables accept. Total: $36.
3. Wait for the first hit. Place 6 or place 8 pays 7 to 6, so $18 pays $21. Your total is now $36 + $21 = $57 on the table if you do nothing.
4. After the first hit, regress both bets: take down $12 from each, leaving $6 on each. Total on table: $12. Total collected: $36 + $21 + $24 = $81.
5. You are now "guaranteed" a profit of $81 - $36 (original bet) - $12 (still on table) = $33, regardless of what happens next.
6. Let the $6 x 2 on the board run until a 7 or until they are hit again.

The idea is to treat the first hit as "lock in the session profit" and then ride the remaining small bets for free. It is psychologically very pleasant - you feel like you are playing on house money.

The math is the same as straight place 6 / place 8 bets (1.52% house edge), because regression is a bet sizing technique, not a math advantage. But the emotional feel is much easier to handle, which matters for bankroll discipline.

The Iron Cross

The Iron Cross is a strategy that wins on almost every roll except 7. It uses a combination of place bets and the field to cover every number.

The setup (typical amounts for a $5 base unit):

• Place 5: $5 (covers the 5)
• Place 6: $6 (covers the 6)
• Place 8: $6 (covers the 8)
• Field bet: $5 (covers 2, 3, 4, 9, 10, 11, 12)

With this combination, you win on every roll EXCEPT 7. The 7 loses all four bets (place 5, 6, 8, field all lose when a 7 rolls).

It sounds magical until you do the math. The 7 is the single most likely roll in craps (6 ways out of 36, or 16.7% per roll). Over a long run, you lose all four bets on every 7, and the wins on other rolls do not quite compensate. Effective house edge: around 1.13% to 2.5% depending on how you weight the components and the exact field payout.

Verdict: better than many bad strategies, worse than pass line with odds. Its appeal is psychological - you feel like you are winning on almost every roll, which is a pleasant sensation. Just know the math is not in your favor long-term.

Hedging bets

Hedging means placing a smaller bet that wins when your main bet loses, to partially offset a loss. Common craps hedges:

• Pass line + any craps: Place a small any craps bet before the come-out. The any craps wins 7 to 1 if the shooter rolls 2, 3, or 12 (which loses pass line). The hedge partially offsets the loss.
• Don't pass + yo (11): Place a small yo bet before the come-out. The 11 wins pass line but loses don't pass. A yo hedge partially offsets the don't pass loss on the come-out 11.

Mathematically, hedging does NOT improve your expected value. The hedge bet has its own (usually worse) house edge. You are just spreading risk across more bets, each of which loses money over time.

Use hedges as entertainment or variance reduction, not as profit strategy. The total house edge across a hedged portfolio is always worse than the underlying line bet alone.

Bankroll management

No strategy survives without bankroll discipline. Craps has high variance - long runs happen, but so do long cold streaks. The goal is to have enough bankroll to ride out the variance without going broke.

A rough rule for a pass-line-with-odds player at a 3-4-5x odds table:

• Buy-in: 40 to 60 base units. For a $10 pass line player, that is $400 to $600.
• Session bankroll: What you can afford to lose in one sitting. Bring cash, leave the cards at home.
• Stop-loss: Set a loss limit before you sit down. When you hit it, walk away. No exceptions.
• Win-goal: Set a profit target. If you hit it, consider locking in half and playing on with the rest, or just walking.

The hardest part of craps is not the math - it is the discipline to stop playing when you should. Most losing sessions happen not because the math is against you (it is, but by a small amount) but because players chase losses or let early wins ride into eventual losses.

Dice control - does it work?

Dice control (also called "rhythm rolling" or "precision shooting") is the theory that a skilled shooter can grip and throw the dice in a way that influences the outcome - specifically, reducing the frequency of 7s during a point round.

Proponents claim that with thousands of hours of practice, they can reduce the 7 frequency from 16.67% (random) to something like 15% - a tiny edge that, if real, would flip craps from a negative-expectation game to positive.

The scientific evidence: there is no peer-reviewed study showing any player has achieved a statistically significant reduction in 7 frequency. Independent analyses of claimed "precision shooters" have found their long-term results statistically indistinguishable from random.

The honest answer: treat dice control as folklore. Some players enjoy the ritual and practice because it gives them something to do besides just rolling. That is fine. But do not bet your bankroll on it. No strategy built on dice control has ever been reliably profitable over thousands of rolls.

What NOT to do

Common mistakes that tank otherwise reasonable strategies:

• Chasing losses. Doubling up after a loss ("Martingale" style) only accelerates bankruptcy when a bad streak hits. The math does not "even out" - it just loses bigger.
• Betting the center of the table. Proposition bets (any seven, horn, hardways) are high house edge. Use them for entertainment only, not as main bets.
• Taking down odds bets. The odds bet is the best bet in the house. Never take it down to "lock in profit" - you are giving up your fair-bet edge.
• Adding bets mid-hot-streak. Variance is variance - a hot streak does not increase the probability of the next roll winning. Keep your bet sizing consistent.
• Making bets you do not understand. If you are not 100% sure what a bet pays and what it loses, do not make it. Ask the dealer or come back after reading about it.
• Playing at tables with bad rules. Low maximum odds (1x or 2x) and standard field payouts are bad deals. Find tables with 3-4-5x or 5x odds minimum, and field with triple on 2 or 12.

Which strategy should you use?

A pragmatic ranking for a recreational player:

1. Pass line with max odds. The mathematically best strategy. Boring but correct.
2. 3 Point Molly. Same math as #1 but with more action. Use this if pass-line-only feels too slow.
3. Pass line with odds + Place 6 and Place 8. Slightly worse edge (~1.0%) but adds action on the two most likely box numbers.
4. Place 6 and 8 regression. Same math as #3 but with better emotional handling of variance.
5. Don't pass with lay odds. Slightly better edge than pass line; awkward socially at a live table.

Everything else - Iron Cross, hedges, proposition bet systems, dice control - is either marginal improvement or active harm. Stick with the top 5 and you will lose slowly enough to play for hours without going broke.

Frequently asked questions